2023 saw threat actors relentlessly innovating and specialising to remain sophisticated in speed and scale, through the use of automation intelligence, targeting against supply chains and managed service providers, and a shifted focus to identity-based attacks. As we ushered in the new year, we expected that these threats would continue to drive the cyber threat landscape in 2024 as threat actors continuously seek to outmanoeuvre defenders. In this blog, we outline Dark Lab’s expectations of the most prevalent issues in 2024, and validate that with observations from the first quarter of incident response insights and threat intelligence investigations.

Ransomware continues to evolve as affiliates seek independence from RaaS groups, weaponize supply chains, and crowdsource efforts by specializing in tradecraft

Ransomware attacks have surged, with a 65% increase in compromised victim listings observed in 2023. There are multiple reasons for this increase, such as the rapid exploitation of new and known vulnerabilities as well as managed service providers (MSPs) becoming prime targets due to their ability to launch downstream attacks on the MSP’s clients. However, we have observed other factors such as affiliates branching out to craft their own trade through specialization (e.g., leveraging crowdsourcing to procure credentials from Initial Access Brokers) and customization of ransomware tools. This is likely compounded by law enforcement efforts to dismantle prominent RaaS operators, such as Hive[1] in early 2023 and more recently BlackCat[2] and LockBit[3].

In 1Q 2024, we responded to an incident involving Mario ESXi ransomware strain. Consistent with other ransomware actors, the threat actor strategically targeted the victim’s backup systems to maximise damage and thereby increase their chances of receiving ransom payment. We assessed that the threat actor may be working with RansomHouse Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) group to publish leaked data as part of their double extortion tactics. However, we had observed that RansomHouse collaborated with other opportunistic threat actors leveraging different strains of ransomware, such as 8BASE, BianLian, and White Rabbit. This specialization allows smaller threat actors to devote their limited resources to developing custom malware strains, potentially off leaked source code of other larger RaaS groups. For example, Mario ransomware utilised leaked Babuk code to develop the .emario variant to target ESXi and .nmario to target Network Attached Storage (NAS) devices.[4][5] We anticipate new, smaller RaaS groups in 2024, and a continued increase in ransomware attack volume.

Organisations must rethink how they define vulnerabilities as threat actors now leverage different “classes” to target their victims

Organisations have made efforts to mitigate the exploitation of Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs) through timely patching and vulnerability management. However, opportunistic threat actors have adapted their attacks by targeting different “classes” of vulnerabilities, such as misconfigurations, exposed administrative portals, or unintended disclosure of sensitive information, as opposed to phishing as the ticket of entry for their attack.

In early 2024, we responded to a Business Email Compromise (BEC) incident in which there were two “classes” of vulnerabilities. First, the production web server had been misconfigured to expose the underlying directory listing; within that directory listing contained a configuration file (.env) that included plain text credentials of various email accounts. Second, those email accounts did not enable multi-factor authentication (MFA), which allowed the threat actor to login to Microsoft 365. Traditional penetration testing exercises may overlook these vulnerability “classes”, but threat actors have adapted their reconnaissance methods to identify these means of achieving initial access. It is crucial for organisations to rethink how they define vulnerabilities and consider any weakness that can be exploited by threat actors to gain access to their environment.

At the tail end of 1Q 2024, we observed a sophisticated supply chain attack unfold, as unknown threat actors attempted to inject malicious code into an open-source library.[6] Despite its assignment of a Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures Identifier, the “vulnerability” emphasises the heightened dependency on libraries and supply chain risks associated. Not only should these vulnerability “classes” be expedited for remediation, but they should also be treated as cyber-attacks given the nature of the impact. As this vulnerability “class” cannot be addressed through preventive or detective measures, it is crucial that organisations develop proactive response plans to enhance their cyber-readiness against such attacks. This includes maintaining asset inventories and cooperating with DevSecOps to identify impacted systems and containing the incident through patching and subsequent threat hunting.

Prioritise resources on securing identity, as this is becoming the most valuable and targeted asset

While organisations strengthen their security defenses through measures like rapid vulnerability patching and MFA enablement, threat actors would explore other means to bypass heightened controls. For example, phishing attacks once focused solely on obtaining valid credentials such as username and password. As MFA become more commonplace, threat actors had to shift their targeting to steal valid, authenticated sessions cookies that proves the victim’s ongoing and authenticated session within the website. Though adversary-in-the-middle (AiTM) has been observed at least since 2022[7], the adaptation has been rapidly accelerating, compounded by the availability of Phishing-as-a-Service toolkits to lower the technical entry thresholds of cybercriminals.

In 1Q 2024, we responded to two separate BEC incidents launched within days of each other against the same victim. While we were unable to confirm if they were two separate campaigns, they both harboured similar characteristics of AiTM attacks – such as the use of rented infrastructure in abnormal geographies to conceal true identity upon login; achieving persistence through manipulating inbox rules, deleting emails, and removing email notifications to hide suspicious actions; and impersonating the user as a trusted party to execute fraudulent transactions to internal users and external parties. This demonstrates the need to adopt a more robust security baseline to secure identities, including managing devices against a compliance profile together with innovative means to detect for AiTM attacks. Please look out for our upcoming blog post would elaborate the latest BEC incidents as well as our proprietary approach to detect and respond to AiTM attacks.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the new hype which both attackers and defenders are looking to weaponize

The emergence of AI has led to a significant wave of interest in how it can be leveraged in cybersecurity. From a threat actor’s perspective, we have observed since mid-2023 and throughout 1Q 2024 the use of AI in the form of “automation intelligence” to reduce the time to weaponize certain “classes” of vulnerabilities. For example, we have observed through our threat intelligence investigations that threat actors are rapidly generating new social media profiles to target unsuspecting victims. While their motivation and capabilities are unclear, it is evident they are exploring and fine-tuning their standard operating procedures due to potential operational security errors (e.g., use of male pronoun for a LinkedIn profile with a female picture, likely generated from AI). In other reports, we have observed that deepfakes have been utilized for financial gain, with one Hong Kong-based incident involving a digitally recreated version of its chief financial officer ordering money transfers in a video conference call.[8] It is likely that AI would be further adapted to be misused for various motivations.

This is a call for cyber defenders to explore how to weaponize AI to keep pace with threat actors. Machine learning techniques allow AI-embedded solutions to adapt to an organisation’s environment and distinguish between normal and anomalous behavioural activity. AI also has the potential to identify abnormal activity by regular users, indicating potential impersonation attempts or credential abuse, addressing the threat of identity-based attacks. Additionally, AI is employed in investigating and responding to incidents, as seen in solutions like Microsoft Copilot for Security, enables heightened efficiency and capabilities of defenders using generative AI. It is expected that AI will continue to uplift cybersecurity professionals by automating repetitive tasks, conducting analysis, proactively identifying threats, and accelerating knowledge acquisition.

Recommendations to Secure Your 2024

Whilst there is no telling for certain how the rest of 2024 will unfold, our 2023 experiences taught us invaluable lessons on how organisations can continue to harden their cyber security posture to adapt to the ever-evolving cyber threat landscape.

• Continuously monitor and minimise your attack surface to proactively and rectify potential security weaknesses that may expose you to external threats and improve situational awareness to prioritise improvement areas in your cyber defense strategy.
  • Regularly review your asset inventory, ensuring Internet-facing applications, exposed administrative ports, and non-production servers are intended to be publicly accessible, are appropriately configured and segmented from your internal network, and prioritised in your vulnerability and patch management process.
  • Conduct dark web monitoring, social media listening, and young domain monitoring to identify mentions or impersonation attempts of your organisation that may indicate potential intent, opportunity, or active targeting against your organisation.
  • Leverage a bug bounty program to crowdsource the expertise of ethical hackers to identify otherwise unknown vulnerabilities and security weaknesses that could otherwise expose you to potential exploitation by malicious actors.
• Protect identities through a layered defense strategy to prevent and detect unauthorised access, impersonation, or misuse of personal information.
  • Govern and apply appropriate access controls and permissions following the principle of least privilege for all users, ensuring access is conditional and restricted only to the resources necessary to perform their job functions. This includes implementing strong authentication mechanisms such as multi-factor authentication (MFA), role-based access controls (RBAC), and continuous monitoring of user activities to detect any suspicious behaviour.
  • Establish behavioural-based detection for user activity to monitor for anomalies, tuning rules to expire tokens and disable sign ins when suspicious behaviour is detected.
  • Prioritise the protection of privileged accounts by implementing strong privileged access management (PAM) controls, such as privileged identity and session management, regular credential rotation, and monitoring of privileged user activities, to mitigate the risk of unauthorised access and potential misuse of high-level privileges.
• Adopt a zero trust strategy, enforcing authentication and authorisation at every access point, regardless of whether it is within or outside the organisation’s network perimeter.
  • Unify and consolidate applications to streamline access controls and reduce potential attack surfaces by eliminating unnecessary or redundant applications, minimising the complexity of managing access policies, and ensuring consistent security measures across the application landscape.
  • Implemented and enforce a compliance profile across your managed devices, regardless of whether it is corporate-provisioned or bring-your-own-device (BYOD).
  • Secure DevOps environments through the implementation of zero trust principles, ensuring cybersecurity is considered at the forefront of innovation and implementation of new technologies. Ensure appropriate training is provided to DevOps professionals to build and implement securely.
  • Consider the long term goal of transforming your security architecture to follow the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) framework to enable a flexible, scalable, more secure approach to your network security strategy.
• Manage supply chain risks posed by third- and fourth-party vendors through robust vendor risk management and ongoing monitoring
  • Conduct thorough due diligence before engaging with a third-party vendor or partner. Perform comprehensive due diligence to assess their security practices, including their vulnerability management processes, security controls, and incident response capabilities, to ensure they align with your organisation’s risk tolerance.
  • Implement a robust vendor management program that includes regular assessments, audits, and contractual agreements that define security requirements and expectations. This program should also outline the responsibilities of both parties regarding vulnerability management, incident reporting, and remediation timelines.
  • Continuously monitor third-party systems and conduct regular vulnerability assessments to identify potential weaknesses. This includes scanning for vulnerabilities, tracking patch management, and engaging in ongoing dialogue with vendors to address any identified vulnerabilities in a timely manner and mitigate supply chain risks.

Further information

Feel free to contact us at [darklab dot cti at hk dot pwc dot com] for any further information.